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What chances test could be worng?

dakotakdq April 15, 2011 April 15, 2011

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My friends buckskin stallion was tested Ee Aa Crcr. His sire is bay and dam is a smokey grullo. So far he hasnt sired ANY red based foals... His foals so far: Chestnut (eeAA) = Buckskin colt Palomino (eeAa) = Buckskin filly Palomino (eeAa) = Perlino filly Chestnut = Buckskin filly Grey (born brown, sure shes EEAa as to a chesnut 3 times she hasnt had a red foal) = Buckskin colt Grey (Black base EeAa) = Bay (grey) filly I just thought to the 4 red based mares he hasnt sired a single red based foals, is this odd or just lucky??

RiddleMeThis Fri, 04/15/2011 - 07:01

Just lucky. Four is in no way big enough to be significant.

Though, it is possible the test was wrong. The people doing the tests are only human.

Daylene Alford Fri, 04/15/2011 - 09:48

I have a palomino mare who out of 10 foals never foaled a foal with only one cream. The only two cream foals she had were double dilutes. Its like flipping a coin and seeing if it lands heads or tails. You may get a bunch of heads in a row but if you flip it 100's of times they come out 50/50.

Monsterpony Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:45

For even the most minimal claim at statistically significant chance, you need ten test breedings. For a more accurate estimate, science requires 100 breedings. 4 is definitely not enough to say for sure.

critterkeeper Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:28

[quote=dakotakdq][b]My friends buckskin stallion was tested Ee aa Crcr. His sire is bay and dam is a smokey grullo.
[/b]
So far he hasnt sired ANY red based foals...

[/quote]

Is it just me, or did anyone else notice that the [b]Ee aa Crcr[/b] stallion is NOT a buckskin? He is a smokey black...can't be buckskin unless he's at least an Aa...lol I believe they are going on his "appearance" which could look washed out or faded and they "assumed" he was a buckskin because his dad was bay or because when bred to agouti positive (Aa) mares he is producing buckskins...